Most recently, he wrote a post that moved my Bayesian needle his way.
Two general questions I was just wondering about:Brilliant.
1. At what time do we typically form the most reliable judgments: when we reflect calmly, or when we are maximally emotional? Are there cases where we are more reliable when most emotional?
2. When do governments typically make the wisest policy choices: when the public is calm, or when they are filled with panic, outrage, or other intense emotions?
Here are two cases you might want to take into account in thinking about the answer:
a. When should we expect a wise, effective, and properly measured response to the threat of terrorism to be devised? On what theory is the answer "Right after a major terrorist attack"?
b. When should we expect wise, effective, and properly measured gun policy to be devised? On what theory is the answer "Right after a mass shooting of children"?
After answering those questions, here's another one to reflect on:
3. On what view, or for what set of goals, is the best time for making major policy decisions the time when the public is filled with terror, outrage, grief, or other intense emotions?
