Here we have the most recent survey results on IGM’s Economic Experts Panel.
The economists answer with a great deal of uncertainty, which strikes me as accurate. The future is unpredictable, and wildly so 100 years into the future. It is always interesting to assess the economists comments after the survey.
The right answer is "uncertain". But "disagree" emphasizes that the view that we are running out of ideas, which has little basis.
Contrary Tyler Cowen, this expert answers with a certainty of 10 that economic growth will sustain as usual. The low hanging fruits of ideas theory is an important idea concerning large scale future economic trends. This economist doesn’t buy it.
I also observe that the idea that we’re running out of resources wasn’t a cited concern for future growth rates. Here’s to Julian Simon!
I am certain that anyone sensible should be uncertain. If one can predict innovation well, one should not be an economist but an inventor.
This strikes me as the most reasonable view.
I think this survey exhibits economists difference with the public in regard to the future’s predictability and Optimistic / pessimistic outlook. My suspicion is that the same question asked to the general public would have received a lot more confidently pessimistic answers. Economists are much more conservative about predictions of the far out future, and a lot more optimistic about the future.
