Donald Trump always renounced David Duke and the KKK, except one time

Donald Trump in 2000: 

“Well, you’ve got David Duke just joined — a bigot, a racist, a problem. I mean, this is not exactly the people you want in your party.”

Donald Trump on August 26th, 2015

Trump: “I don’t need his endorsement; I certainly wouldn’t want his endorsement. I don’t need anyone’s endorsement.”

Heilemann: “Would you repudiate David Duke? 

Trump: “Sure, I would do that, if it made you feel better. I don’t know anything about him. Somebody told me yesterday, whoever he is, he did endorse me. Actually I don’t think it was an endorsement. He said I was absolutely the best of all of the candidates.”

Donald Trump on February 26th, 2016

“I didn’t even know he endorsed me. David Duke endorsed me? Okay, all right. I disavow, okay?”

Time on February 28th, 2016 

Donald Trump Refuses to Condemn KKK, Disavow David Duke Endorsement

The Telegraph on March 1st 2016

"Trump's refusal to condemn David Duke and his racist movement shows he is happy to dance with the devil in pursuit of power"

CBS news on February 28th, 2016 

Donald Trump declines to condemn KKK leader

I don't want to sound like a Trump supporter here, but it seems like the media was being pretty disingenuous with its reporting here. Much of the reporting was in regard to one particular instance where Trump didn't disavow him when he had the opportunity. Trump explained later that:

“I’m sitting in a house in Florida, with a very bad earpiece that they gave me, and you could hardly hear what he was saying. But what I heard was ‘various groups.’ And I don’t mind disavowing anybody and I disavowed David Duke. And I disavowed him the day before at a major news conference…. I have no problem disavowing groups, but I’d at least like to know who they are.

He disavowed just before the bad earpiece scandal, and he disavowed after it. Politically it would be an obvious tactical error to not distance yourself from anything having to do with the KKK. I'm sorry but the story here is not, "Trump refuses to disavow David Duke." The story is... well there is no story. Regardless, the media hopped on the bandwagon as fast as they could and blew the whole thing out of proportion.

And that's why fake news is a thing.

Was Thomas Jefferson able to free his slaves?

In an interview with Dave Reuben, the much maligned Glenn Beck made the claim that Thomas Jefferson could not release his slaves because it was illegal for one to do so while in debt.

Is it true?

This source quotes the law itself

This law allowed slave owners when they were alive to free their slaves, provided slaves were of sound body and older than 18 if a female and older than 21 if a male, but not above the age of 45. Thus, Jefferson could have freed many of his slaves within the law while he was alive.

 It also points out that Jefferson, in fact, freed two slaves. It's kind of hard to argue that Jefferson was unable to free his slaves when he actually freed 2.

This three-part, citation heavy series is also very good.

Here's what people miss about the gender gap

By Vox

The more Vox moves to the center and takes to a smarter, more academically oriented form of liberalism, the better the world will be.

But would it make them more successful?

Causation, God, and Free Will

Sam Harris doesn't believe in God or free will. Ben Shapiro believes in both. You might say that Sam Harris stops believing in causation when he starts talking about the beginning of the universe, and you might say Ben Shapiro stops believing in causation when he starts talking about free will.

Here is Sam Harris on free will:

My problem with free will is that there is no account of how causes can happen that lead to further events, whether it's determined or random or combined, that makes sense of what I think most people mean by free will...

its' unfalsifiable in some sense because it's not an empirical datum, it's just an incoherent idea.

 Ben Shapiro on god's existence:

"If you don't want an infinite regress of causes, you have to come to the unactualized actualizer. A thing that just is. A thing that just exists. And this is what we call God.

 Maybe they should both just become Calvinists?

Why are Trolls always Men?

Study on Sex differences in Facebook trolling and narcissism

Men win more Darwin Awards than Women

According to “male idiot theory” (MIT) many of the differences in risk seeking behaviour, emergency department admissions, and mortality may be explained by the observation that men are idiots and idiots do stupid things.

Potential biological differences is hypothesized.

Economists on Trump and Free Trade

One hundred economists sign a letter supporting president Trump's economic policy agenda.

We believe that reciprocal free trade with lower trade barriers on all sides produces higher overall economic growth and hope that the President's efforts to negotiate better trade deals, including willingness to re-enter the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), will bring about a stronger long-run free trade equilibrium by reducing trade barriers and opening markets that were previously closed to American businesses.

One thousand economists sign a letter to Trump and Congress in opposition to protectionism and tariffs.

Countries cannot permanently buy from us unless they are permitted to sell to us, and the more we restrict the importation of goods from them by means of ever higher tariffs the more we reduce the possibility of our exporting to them.

This was pointed out in Greg Mankiw's Blog

Sam Harris Interviews

1. A debate with Ezra Klein on race, genetics, and PC culture

2. A talk with Jordan Peterson on capital T Truth and the bible

3. A debate with conservative Ben Shapiro

4. Dave Reuben gives Sam a great interview where Sam defends himself against the far left

5. Sam and Eliezer Yudkowsky talk Artificial Intelligence and the end of the world

All are worth a listen.

Where thoughts come from

If you pay attention you can see that you no more decide the next thing you think than the next thing I say.

This from Sam Harris

My 3 Rules to Parenting

Sometimes when I think about parenting, I give myself three rules.

1) Keep them happy
2) Keep them safe
3) Don't let them wreck things

In light of twin/adoption studies that show parenting has little influence on children, common practices geared toward the molding of children into good adults are omitted from this list.

Still, my list is a little too simple. Most notably, it excludes short-term incentives that can make children easier to live with. I may use rewards and punishments to help direct my children today and tomorrow, without deluding myself into thinking I'm transforming them into the people they're always going to be the rest of their lives.

Bart Ehrman on annihalationism

 In his conversation with Sam Harris, Bart Ehrman says,

Jesus thought that there would be a resurrection of the dead at the end of time, and he appears to have thought that those who are opposed to God were not going to be tormented forever, they were going to be annihilated.

 The people at Rethinking Hell therefore have an unusual ally in Mr. Ehrman.

The Presidents that didn't move the Embassy to Israel

Remember when our last three presidents all promised they'd move the U.S. embassy to Israel? Me neither, but it happened, and the people loved it.

Why do we require evidence beyond a reasonable doubt?

Straight out of David Friedman's book, Laws Order.

In fact, law in the United States and similar systems require a high standard of proof ("beyond a reasonable doubt") in a criminal case but only a low standard ("preponderance of the evidence") in a civil case. Why? The answer cannot simply be that we are more careful with criminal convictions because the penalties are bigger. A damage judgment of a million dollars, after all, is a considerably more severe punishment for most of us than a week in jail.

Economics suggests a simple explanation. The typical result of losing a lawsuit is a cash payment from the defendant to the plaintiff. The result of being convicted of a crime may well be imprisonment or execution. A high error rate in civil cases means that sometimes I lose a case I should have won and pay you some money and sometimes you lose a case you should have won and pay me some money. On average the punishment itself imposes no net cost; it is simply a transfer. A high error rate in criminal cases means that sometimes I get hanged for murder I didn't commit and sometimes you get hanged for a murder you didn't commit. In a criminal case, unlike a civil case, one man's loss is not another man's gain. Punishment is mostly a net cost rather than a transfer, so it makes sense to be a good deal more careful about imposing it.

I don't think the makers of our institutions had this in mind, so it is strange that we got such a conducive outcome by accident. The same could be said of a lot instances found in David Friedman's book. There are far more efficiencies than we would first expect when we consider how little of our system was planned and how much of it evolved. We betray this lack of intent when we say, "the reason why" when we mean, "the way things turned out."

Moreover, when it was planned, much of it was done with completely different rationales from the justifications we would give today. I notice this in much of modern economic theory, where economists have re-justified policies with expired rationales.

Also interesting is this paper which asks which standard of proof should be used when criminal conduct has to be proved in civil proceedings. It seems to me like a court trying a civil case should be able to assume a "found innocent" person is guilty if the evidence suggests as much.

But what do I know.

How common is it for a man to be shorter than his partner

Very likely

A study finds that in the U.K. 92.5% of couples the man is taller than the woman. 3.4% of couples were the same height, and 4.1% of couples the woman was taller.

The United States is similar, with 92.2% of men being taller than their spouses.

Of course, men tend to be taller than women anyway, and much research has been done on the correlation between height and IQ (1,2,3)

While the studies I mentioned were of real life couples, another study shows people also say height matters - mostly on the woman's side. 49% of women reported that they preferred a taller man. 13.5% of men reported that they preferred a shorter woman. This isn't the only way women might be more particular than men when choosing a mate. Some evidence from OK Cupid shows women give much lower ratings of men on a scale from 1-10 than men give women.

Some ways that men are more particular than women might be that they consistently find 20 year old women at peak attractiveness. Meanwhile women consistently prefer men a few years older than them until about 30, and then a few years younger.

This study shows men of average height have the highest reproductive success. Some others (1,2) show that being taller than average is optimal for reproductive success.

Right Wing Parenting

1. 

A lot of loose hypotheses in the conversation between Warren Farrell and Jordan Peterson.

2. Alison Gopnik thinks parenting should be less like carpentry and more like gardening

3. Conservative education site on how to make obedient children. It includes such tips as:
-Use fewer words to communicate in order to sound more confident
- Do not explain the motives behind your instructions. Tell them, "because I said so."
-Speak from an upright position, do not bend down to the child's level

It's very authoritarian.

What you Need to Know about Willpower

From the American Psychological Association:

My basic view on willpower is that people depend too much on it. Strategy is a better approach to getting things done (for example, using a bit of willpower early to garner momentum throughout the day). You can't make more by willing it into being, but by practicing and building it over time. It's largely inherited, but you can build more or less with what nature gave you.

The Problem with Sexual Arousal Studies

Apparently, experts measure women's arousal by blood-flow into the vagina, when they should be measuring the erection of the clitorus.

Why do Puns make People Groan?

“Puns are threatening because puns reveal the arbitrariness of meaning, and the layers of nuance that can be packed onto a single word,”

 This all sounds a bit dramatic to me. A simpler hypothesis might be that most puns are lazy attempts at humor.

Bryan Caplan on Conversations with Tyler

One of the best Bryan Caplan interviews I've ever heard (and I've heard them all)

I remember once I was just wandering past opening day for The Hunger Games, which I was not particularly a fan of. But just to see a bunch of people who are in love with something, I was happy just looking at them loving this thing in a way that when I see someone half watching a sitcom while doing something else, that’s the kind of thing that depresses me. 

I just want to go and shut it off. If it’s worth watching, it’s worth watching with 100 percent attention. If it doesn’t motivate you that way, you need to find something else. Or else you might be wasting your whole aesthetic life!

 Maybe it's time to start watching all the movies nominated for Best Picture, starting with 2017's The Shape of Water.

Ezra Klein on Worse Threats than Trump

A more somber and uncertain tone for Ezra Klein. He still hits the race button throughout.

The Effect of Personality and IQ on Income

Your destiny:

Some have pointed out that IQ may be underestimated because everyone in the sample scored above the top .5%

Also, notice that the sample is men. Do women differ significantly?

Notice that the positive effects of IQ kick in around 30. Also the negative effects of agreeableness kick in around 35.

It is my understanding that conscientiousness/openness maps onto conservatism/liberalism quite well, explaining why conservatives make more.

Perhaps the most surprising to me is the importance of extraversion! Why haven't I heard about this before?

Interviews of North Koreans

What North Koreans think of America - an interview with former North Korean citizens on America, South Korea, and Trump.

"South Korea has been colonized by the US ever since, and we have to help South Korea who's struggling with extreme poverty"

"North Korea is pretty smart when it comes to getting what they want"

Laws of Behavioral Genetics

The three laws of behavioral genetics, written by Eric Turkheimer and supported by Steven Pinker are as follows.

1) All human behavioural traits are heritable.

2) The effect of being raised in the same family is smaller than the effect of the genes.

3) A substantial portion of the variation in complex human behavioural traits is not accounted for by the effects of genes or families.”

A fourth law was proposed:

4) A typical human behavioral trait is associated with very many genetic variants, each of which accounts for a very small percentage of the behavioral variability.

Students Silencing Speakers ‘a Sign of Intellectual Weakness

Bernie Sanders earns some extra points with me.

Here's what he said,

“To me, it’s a sign of intellectual weakness. If you can’t ask Ann Coulter in a polite way questions which expose the weakness of her arguments, if all you can do is boo, or shut her down, or prevent her from coming, what does that tell the world?”

Related:

Free speech is not - and should not be allowed to become - just a right-wing issue. pic.twitter.com/QM74ofwQgw

— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) 12 May 2018

A Survey of Experts on General Intelligence, Race Differences, and IQ Testing

From the abstract:

Results indicate expert consensus that g is an important, non-trivial determinant (or at least predictor) of important real world outcomes for which there is no substitute, and that tests of g are valid and generally free from racial bias.

 and,

Experts did not reach consensus on issues such as the degree to which specific abilities or combinations of non-cognitive traits can yield predictive validities comparable to that of g alone, the predictive validity of g for non-technical work outcomes (e.g., contextual performance), and the nature and implications of race differences in intelligence.

The Intellectual Dark Web

Some of the people I frequently listen to are now being labelled "The Intellectual Dark Web."

From the New York Times:

But they all share three distinct qualities. First, they are willing to disagree ferociously, but talk civilly, about nearly every meaningful subject: religion, abortion, immigration, the nature of consciousness. Second, in an age in which popular feelings about the way things ought to be often override facts about the way things actually are, each is determined to resist parroting what’s politically convenient. And third, some have paid for this commitment by being purged from institutions that have become increasingly hostile to unorthodox thought — and have found receptive audiences elsewhere.

The point made in the above quote can't be made clear enough. These are a diverse group of people bound together by little more than their insistence on civility and intellectual honesty. Yet, I've come across several articles which give them inaccurate labels in order to peg them political enemies.

Here is the gateway to the Intellectual Dark Web. It is much easier to access now than for those of us who had to jump the fence.

Also see, I was liberated by the Intellectual Dark Web

Brain Differences between Male and Females

The biggest study of sex based brain differences.

Study is here.

Measuring Global Sex Differences in Personality

What did this study do differently to get such large sex differences in personality?

(a) measure personality with a higher resolution than that afforded by the Big Five; (b) estimate sex differences on latent factors; and (c) assess global sex differences with multivariate effect sizes. We then apply these guidelines to a large, representative adult sample, and obtain what is presently the best estimate of global sex differences in personality.  

The conclusion:

The idea that, on average, there are only minor differences between the personality profiles of males and females should be rejected as based on an inadequate methodology. For example, a recent analysis of FFM aspects by Weisberg and colleagues [53] led the authors to conclude that sex differences in personality are small to moderate, and that the distributions of men and women are largely overlapping. However, the analysis relied on observed scores, and the authors did not aggregate univariate differences into a proper multivariate effect size...

In conclusion, we believe we made it clear that the true extent of sex differences in human personality has been consistently underestimated.

3 Studies

1. Study finds that physical attractiveness doesn't correlate well with happiness, except among those who think a person's observable features offer a critical window to understanding the individual's core.

2. (Another) Study finds that parents transmit educational achievement through genes rather than parenting.

3. Study finds prioritizing time over money promotes subjective well-being, however when valuing time like money, valuing time can undermine well-being.

That last one rings true.

When do we lose the ability to learn language like a native speaker?

Five years? Thirteen? Thirty?!! 

With Steven Pinker

Was Thanos Right?

1. The real villain of Avenger's Infinity War is population panic

2. After Black Panther and Infinity War, what's with Marvel's liberal villains?

3. "The legitimacy of Thanos' overpopulation fears are just as fictional as the character himself."

Kialo

A website that breaks down arguments to each individual claim

The Story of Planet Earth

"Everything was awful for a very long time, and then the industrial revolution happened."

What, really? On Education

Is there generally 0 correlation between education expenditure and mean student test scores at the district level?

Does anyone want to double check that?

Also see a much longer discussion of education by Random Critical Analysis.

Robin Hanson on Sex Redistribution

A fair hearing on sex redistribution with the "world's creepiest professor."

Bill Maher Shuns Political Correctness yet again

"barking at nothing makes people not want to listen when you actually have something to say"

More people going hungry in 2016

Bad news From the UN:

In 2016 the number of chronically undernourished people in the world is estimated to have increased to 815 million, up from 777 million in 2015 although still down from about 900 million in 2000."

Despicable 8

1. A new Podcast to listen to. I will be listening to the episode about how to build a better blog/podcast.

2. Postmortem Summary of The Sam Harris & Ezra Klein Podcast:

My biggest takeaway from the engagement was the feeling of sadness that two liberals who agree on 95% of social issues could have such a negative and non-productive conversation despite their deep similarities and superb communication skills.

3.  What's the difference between cultural appropriation and being a melting pot? Some answers:

probably the best rule of thumb is to ask whether it's in line with how the original culture would handle it

and

It's cultural appropriation if a SJW sees it. If anyone else sees it it's the latter.

4. A friend tagged me in this picture

pic.twitter.com/rmq62hTDbX

— Neoliberal (@ne0liberal) 30 April 2018

Another reminder that Everything's Awesome and Nobody's Happy.

5. From a study that shows what causes cancer vs. what people think cause cancer:

Knowledge of risk factors causally linked to cancer was higher than knowledge of factors not causally linked to cancer, but still disappointingly low. Low fruit and vegetable consumption was the least recognised cancer risk factor, with less than one third of participants reporting it. Obesity was also poorly recognised, which is concerning considering it is the second leading preventable cause of cancer

6. The following podcast was endorsed as "the best 2 hour investment someone can make in their health and wellbeing"

https://vimeo.com/266596362

But I've been too tired to watch it.

7. "Just 1 in 4 Americans believe teachers in this country are paid fairly"

Given the public haven't the slightest clue what teachers actually earn, I'd put this in the same folder as "95% of Americans think we don't spend enough on health care" and "rich people don't pay enough it taxes".

Which doesn't mean they're wrong, it's just that public opinion can't be taken seriously if they're fantastically ignorant of the relevant objective data.

8. Someone posted the following argument on Twitter:

IQ Denialism Is Anti-Semitic. 

1. Anti-semitic conspiracy theories point to Jews disproportionately occupying powerful positions 

2. Jews occupy powerful positions bc they have higher IQ on average 

3. Denying (2) increases the probability people will believe (1)

 This is the same mistake people like Ezra Klein make when they define racism by outcomes. By this logic, we might also say that astronomy is Pagan, because astronomers increase the probability one will worship the sun by pointing out that the sun exists.